inp.polri.go.id - Jakarta. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) stated that global climate conditions have the potential to develop into a weak to moderate El Niño phenomenon in the second half of 2026, with a probability of around 50-80 percent, increasing the risk of drought and forest and land fires in Indonesia.
BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani stated that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, but indications of strengthening toward El Niño require vigilance, as they could exacerbate the dry season.
The BMKG assesses that, based on expert studies, the dry season could potentially arrive earlier and last longer, and that overall climate conditions in 2026 are expected to be drier than normal.
"It's important to understand that drought and El Niño are two different phenomena. Drought is a climatological cycle, but if it occurs simultaneously with El Niño, rainfall will be significantly reduced and conditions will become drier," explained Teuku on Thursday (4/9/2026).
ENSO is a global climate phenomenon characterized by changes in sea surface temperature and air pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It consists of three main phases: El Niño (warming), La Niña (cooling), and neutral. These changes influence weather patterns in various regions of the world, including Indonesia, where El Niño generally causes reduced rainfall and increases the risk of drought and forest fires.
In line with these conditions, he explained that BMKG recorded that the number of hotspots in Indonesia had reached 1,601 as of early April 2026, an increase compared to the same period in previous years.
The Head of BMKG detailed that the potential for forest and land fires is expected to begin increasing in Riau in June, then spread to Jambi and South Sumatra, and continue to West Kalimantan and South Kalimantan from July to August.
As a mitigation measure, BMKG continues to strengthen its preventative approach through Weather Modification Operations (OMC) using land rewetting methods, particularly in peat-prone areas.
"When the groundwater level in peatlands begins to decline, the BMKG immediately implements weather modification to maintain soil moisture and prevent flammability," said Teuku.
Finally, he emphasized the importance of cross-sectoral preparedness, both by local governments and communities, to anticipate the increasing risk of forest and land fires as climate conditions evolve.
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